Author: V. V. BULGAKOV
Col. Gen. V. V. BULGAKOV
Hero of the Russian Federation
Radical changes in the military-political and military-strategic situation, the creation and employment of new weaponry and forms of warfare with and without use of arms call for an unconventional approach to studying the problems of war and peace. The reality is such that there still remain in the world and in the RF many political, economic, ethnic and other contradictions not all of which, unfortunately, lend themselves to being resolved through peaceful means. As a result armed conflicts arise.
The conflicts can be settled using institutional or instrumental methods. The institutional method implies the creation of a special infrastructure in the form of networks of organizations designed for strategic forecasting and resolution of conflicts and made up of institutions of national, regional and global level. The instrumental method presumes the use of concrete regulating measures that can be classified as operational and tactical. Operational measures imply some one-shot or sporadic acts mainly aimed at reducing the scale of conflicts or eliminating their aftermath. Tactical measures aim at settling existing conflicts by using coercive measures against their participants or by talks.
The summed up experience of both external and internal armed conflicts or local wars of recent times makes it possible to single out six phases in their development.
The first phase (latent, as a rule) consists in the inception of a conflict. The military- political situation becomes dangerous, although there is no direct military threat of an internal outburst and strategic stability holds.
The second phase involves heightening tensions and the beginning of confrontation between the opposing sides and this is accompanied by sharp political statements and show of military force.
The third phase sees the deepening of confrontation with the sides going over to provocations, but they refrain from direct use of military force. Differences heighten whereas the strategic situation can remain relatively stable on the whole.
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