Opponents' Attractors in Local Conflicts Involving Nonlethal Weapons


Col. S.V. PANTELEYEV (Ret), Doctor of Technical Sciences

Stanislav V. PANTELEYEV was born in Kirovograd on August 26, 1951. He graduated from the Radio Engineering Institute in Minsk (1975) and the F.E. Dzerzhinsky Military Rocket Forces Academy (1991). He was employed at the Physics Institute of the Byelorussian Academy of Sciences. Beginning in 1976, he served in positions of junior research associate, advancing up to department chief of FSI 12th Central Scientific Research Institute of the Russian Defense Ministry.

Today, Stanislav Panteleyev is chief research associate at the Institute. He has authored over 200 academic works, and is a doctor of technical sciences, professor, and winner of the Russian Government's Prize.

Abstract. The author has developed a model to predict the way in which events may go in local conflicts in which nonlethal weapons are used.

Keywords: nonlethal weapons, mathematical model, attractors, peacekeepers, terrorists.

There is no need to destroy an adversary's manpower completely and unconditionally in every military conflict. In an internal military conflict, by way of example, armed forces may be used to break the will of illegal armed groups (terrorists) to continue resistance, not to destroy them.

Purposes like this are served by both regular and nonlethal (disabling, extremely frequency frequency, electric shock, light and sound stunning, and suchlike) weapons. The psychology behind what the opponents want to do to one another is that nonlethal weapons can damp down aggression because little damage done takes the edge off mutual grievances and complaints. In the end, de-escalation of a conflict gives the opponents a chance to settle their differences peacefully (without resort to armed force).

No models justifying the use of nonlethal weapons to ease confrontation between opponents have been developed thus far.

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This author offers his own approach to the study of attractors, or central points of events or conditions for a system of three components - ...

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